¿¿ HURRICANE COMIN’ ??   : :  Weather Tools

Tuesday August 17, TS Grace, near bottom, over Haiti, days after their 7.2 earthqquake, of Saturday, August 14.  (On far right, TS Henri doing a U-turn near Bermuda, soon to head for Cape Cod.)

Merida appears to be in the crosshairs.  While Tropical Storm GRACE isn’t presently expected to become a hurricane until after leaving Merida, this stuff can change quickly.  (Two days ago it was tracking for New Orleans, passing between Cuba and Florida.)

Grace could be my very first tropical hurricane, aside from remnants of Hurricane Hazel which blew thru the Buffalo area when I was a boy, and then nearly drowned Toronto, washing out several neighborhoods, which are now parks.  (Hurricane-risk is maybe preferable to those nearly annual Buffalo blizzards — but blizzards don’t create parks.)  Tropical Storm Cristóbal, last year, dropped over 20 inches of rain (not snow) on Merida, lingering for a few days.  But there wasn’t much wind.  Nor anything to shovel!   [more text beneath graphics . . .]

 

LAST YEAR :  Cristóbal, June 2020,  youtube  (fair use). Predictions need updates, often !!!

¿ The WEATHER CHANNEL, or WEATHER UNDERGROUND ?  You pick:

MSNBC / screenshot from youtube. (fair use)

Perhaps you remember the big flap over an audition by a politician as a weather guy?  (The Don maybe got his opportunity to apply for the job from being tight with a very wealthy executive of TWC, a big supporter.)  Hurricane Dorian went up the east coast, but Donnie said it was going to Alabama, based on very outdated TWC info.  Here are excerpts from Associated Press:

“Trump has defended his Sept.1 tweet that said Hurricane Dorian would threaten Alabama. Last week Trump displayed an altered hurricane forecast map in the Oval Office that included a crudely drawn addition in black ink to include parts of Alabama in an attempt to make his point.” […]

“Trump cited older and less authoritative information, which was based on outdated computer models and older graphics on wind speed.” > >   So, are ya gonna pick a weather-feed based on science, or politics?

Wednesday 11:45 am. Weather Underground predicts only an inch of rain.  I think they got it about right, judging by the level in the pool, but the power went out on my rooftop weather tools, so I am unsure.

Cool tool, with lots of details  Windy.com    (Yucatan in blue.  Cuba in green.  TS Grace in purple)

 

8am Wednesday  NHC National Hurricane Center.

 

Wednesday 10:30 am  NOAA “Geo-color”

 

Wednesday 11:20am  NOAA  “GLM FED”  Lightning mapper shows storm covering peninsula.

 

3:40 pm Wednesday. Geostationary Lightning Mapper

 

According to WeatherUSA, the storm became a hurricane about 15 minutes ago, at 11:28 am Wednesday:  Hurricane Grace was intensifying on Wednesday morning. A reconnaissance plane found that an eye with a diameter of 18 miles (29 km) was forming at the center of Grace. The developing eye was surround by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Grace. Storms near the core of Grace were generating upper level divergence that was pumping mass away from the hurricane. The removal of mass was causing the surface pressure to decrease. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) on the eastern side of Grace. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation.

 

8:30 pm Wednesday

 

Above: “Night-time microphysics” roughly 8 am Thursday

 

9:15 am Thursday, a friend well east of Merida (Tepekan) reports a few gusts, light rain. Here in Merida, no rain, light breeze.  (Yucatan peninsula no longer discernible.)

Meanwhile, a bit to the north, TS Henri is doing a U-turn southwest of Bermuda, and charting a course for Cape Cod!  And according to CNN, Grace crossed the Bay of Campeche, striking Mexico’s Veracruz state as a category 3 hurricane.

Grace was graceful.  She took down trees around town, causing power outages, but I’ve heard of no human tragedies.  Our power went off at 1:45 pm, and was out for 13 hours.  We ate a double portion of B&J’s Cherry Garcia, to “rescue it” from turning to soup.  A few small limbs came down from the big zapote tree in the backyard.  Lots of soggy leaves, but no damage.  A few photos of the aftermath:

Power winked off briefly, resetting wifi device, before going out for 13 hours.

Power winked off briefly at 1:45pm Thursday, resetting wifi tool, then went out for 13 hours.

CLICK:

Yes, there’s no global warming!

 

 

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